Will Bill Belichick listen to his good friend Urban Meyer and take Tim Tebow in the first round? / AP
Tim Tebow may have struggled at the Senior Bowl and shined at his Pro Day, but to determine his actual draft stock, and chances of being selected in the first round, look no further than the list of teams that have checked him out in a private workout.
Since holding his Pro Day at Florida on March 17, Tebow has held private workouts with six teams – Buffalo, Seattle, Cleveland, Washington, New England and Minnesota – with another one scheduled this week at Denver.
And Tebow isn’t just going for a football workout. Jim Kelly invited him over for dinner at his Buffalo home. Tebow went out to dinner twice in Boston, once with Bill Belichick and once with Tom Brady.
Daniel Jeremiah, a former scout for Baltimore and Cleveland, said the private workout process is often a ruse for NFL teams to send out misinformation, but when it comes to quarterbacks, especially Tebow, the private workouts usually identify who is truly interested.
“Traditionally there’s some other teams out there that don’t want to show their hand with a personal workout,” said Jeremiah, who now runs the NFL draft site MoveTheSticks.com. “But you miss on a quarterback in the first round, people get fired. You’re going to put those guys in a private workout, go through every imaginable case to give yourself confidence in that pick.”
Tebow may not be a first-round pick, but even Mel Kiper will admit that Tebow won’t last past the first half of the second round in next week’s draft.
All seven teams looking at Tebow also happen to share one characteristic – having a coaching staff that isn’t on the hot seat. Bill Belichick has the ultimate job security, Brad Childress just took his team to the NFC title game while the other five coaching staffs are in their first or second year.
“If it’s make-or-break time for your organization, they aren’t taking that risk,” Jeremiah said. “But when you’ve got a coach that’s in his first year, they can afford to take lumps with Tebow while he develops. And in Belichick’s case, he’s untouchable.”
So who will draft Tebow? We break it down (in alphabetical order):
BUFFALO BILLS
Why they will: Still looking for a franchise quarterback to replace Drew Bledsoe after whiffing on J.P. Losman and Trent Edwards. Tebow has Kelly’s public endorsement, new coach Chan Gailey can afford to develop Tebow over a couple years and Buffalo’s blue-collar fans would take to Tebow’s work ethic. Tebow would also create a ton of buzz for a team looking to expand its footprint in Canada.
Why they won’t: The ninth overall pick may be too high to risk on Tebow. The Bills may also find it tough to trade down in the first round, and Tebow may not be around by the ninth pick of the second round. Buffalo could also spend its first pick on a left tackle.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Why they will: The quarterback situation is a mess. Jake Delhomme is the new starter, but nothing more than a one- or two-year stopgap. Seneca Wallace was just acquired in a trade from Seattle, but Mike Holmgren has used him more as a hybrid player than quarterback. And Tebow could fall in their lap with the sixth pick of the second round.
Why they won’t: The seventh overall pick is too high for Tebow (it may be used instead of his UF teammate, Joe Haden), and there is no guarantee he will be there at 38. The Browns also have important holes to fill in the secondary and offensive line.
DENVER BRONCOS
Why they will: Josh McDaniels comes from the Bill Belichick School of Offense and doesn’t mind getting creative with his personnel. And Tebow could probably satisfy the locals’ need for a successor to John Elway.
Why they won’t: Broncos already have two young quarterbacks on the roster, Brady Quinn and Kyle Orton. Spending an 11th pick, and several million dollars, on a third quarterback doesn’t make too much sense, especially when they will need a replacement for soon-to-be-traded receiver Brandon Marshall.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Why they will: This one makes too much sense, especially with the Vikings picking 30th. He can sit behind Brett Favre for one year (or two, or three, or four…) but also take some of the short-yardage burden off the fragile Adrian Peterson. Tebow would reunite with his favorite target, Percy Harvin, and could be the final piece the Vikings need to get to the Super Bowl.
Why they won’t: The Vikings could make a “need” pick on the offensive line (maybe even UF teammate Maurkice Pouncey) instead of a “luxury” pick like Tebow.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Why they will: Belichick is the most creative coach in the NFL and salivates about the different ways he could deploy Tebow. It also doesn’t hurt that Belichick is best friends with Tebow’s coach, and that Belichick has built a relationship with Tebow over the past four years. Or that Tebow can learn about football and life from Brady. Or that the Pats have four picks among the top 53, including 22nd overall, and can work their front office magic to make sure they land Tebow.
Why they won’t: Belichick is the master of the smoke screen. Publicly stating his affection for Tebow is not the same as drafting him.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Why they will: If anyone appreciates Tebow’s college accomplishments, it’s new Seahawks coach Pete Carroll. Matt Hasselbeck is getting older, and Tebow could be the new face of Carroll’s program. With three picks in the top 40, including two first-rounders, Seahawks can afford to spend one on Tebow.
Why they won’t: Picks 6 and 14 are too high for Tebow, and he may be gone by 40. The offseason trade for Charlie Whitehurst may have satisfied the need for a future quarterback. Carroll’s pro-style offense may not fit Tebow’s skill set.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Why they will: Tebow can learn behind Donovan McNabb for two years before taking over. Dan Snyder loves media buzz, and nobody provides that better than Tebow. And it doesn’t hurt that new coach Mike Shanahan is known as a quarterback guru who helped Elway win two Super Bowls.
Why they won’t: Basically down to one draft pick – fourth overall, which is too high for Tebow. If they can’t trade out of that pick, then they are pretty much out of the Tebow Derby.